Everyday Murders in the nation Drop Over a Third In Claudia Sheinbaum, Per Official Statistics

The average figure of daily homicides each month in the country has decreased by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by recent administrative statistics. Nevertheless, public safety experts have advised that homicide figures may not point to enhanced national security.

Notable Reduction in Per-Day Numbers

There was an average of nearly 55 killings a day in November versus nearly 87 when the President began the presidential office in September. This information was shared by the head of the country’s national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The result in murders that we’ve had during these past months is extremely significant,” Claudia Sheinbaum said, noting that last month the smallest amount of homicides were documented for any single November in the last decade.

Historical Context and Official Plan

Intense organized crime internal conflicts, combined with the administration's heavily militarised efforts to take on the cartels, have led to Mexico’s homicide numbers soar in recent times. The figure reached a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the nation's official data agency.

That gave Mexico a homicide rate over four times higher than the United States. From that point, homicides have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. The President has attributed her national security approach for an apparently more pronounced reduction in homicides in the current year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the head of state stated: “There is a strategy, there is monitoring of the plan, and there is specific tracking municipality by municipality in some cases. The plan is effective. And we have to keep working at it every day.”

The key components of Sheinbaum’s security strategy include:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Improving information gathering and investigation work.
• Increased cooperation between various departments.

Analyst Caution and Data Concerns

Nevertheless, public safety researchers urged caution that focusing solely on homicide numbers to assess the situation of improved security was misleading. This is especially true in light of the rise in other criminal activities such as people going missing.

“That would be excellent information if this were a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the murder data and conclude: ‘Oh well, good,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be tentatively positive.”

As reported by the public policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall declined by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year versus the same timeframe last year. But, disappearances have increased by 15% and in certain regions have increased by up to 200%.

“Data on murders is no longer valid for estimating the situation of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the capacity or the inclination to accurately identify and categorize corpses. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the capability to mask violence through abductions.”

Vargas added that relying on monthly means of everyday killings was also an issue because it might obscure periods when there were particularly elevated levels of murders.

“Relying on the per-day average renders surges of violence invisible,” he concluded.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Progress

Where the government can cite the success of its safety strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 people were apprehended between October 2024 and this past November for high-impact offenses, according to government data. Over 20,000 firearms were taken and 311 tonnes of drugs confiscated.

“Donald Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of criminal groups. It’s very in political terms beneficial,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Anger

However despite these measures, Mexico is still beset by severe violence, with a number of states in the grip of cartel-fueled bloodshed. Recently there was a prominent murder of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors assassinated in the past 12 months.

Weeks later, many thousands of youth protested in the capital and across the nation to show their anger at corruption and drug violence.

“The administration shares [data] in a way to build a story of security. From a political standpoint it’s extremely successful, socially it’s very questionable,” Vargas concluded.