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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple formula. It often acts as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic improvement receives the prize. In practice, it fuels an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or simply the most shocking upset.

Yet the current race is fundamentally unique. The group of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference champions declining and longtime also-rans rising together. Under an normal year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this turbulent and fun year, he's competing with several other elite coaches.

Here is how the ideal ballot could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his rare talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that creates wide-open targets consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to spin magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Almost each decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the organization with the immense pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current is not a normal season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. However he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

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