Keir Starmer's Supporters Launch 'Halt Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback
Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a coordinated effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an upcoming byelection.
Significant Barriers in the Candidate Selection Procedure
Several members on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are anxious to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The party apparatus reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted consternation in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
A number of sources also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a significant campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry related to his membership in an offensive online group.