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New Yorkers will learn who will be their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will determine who governs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to send military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has become an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led his rival by significant margins across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's power moves, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to Americans' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the party arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

Following extensive launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani directly. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in last year, not many had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after video emerged appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a DSA gathering in recent years. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd